South Africa has become the first team to qualify for the World Test Championship (WTC) final after a thrilling two-wicket win against Pakistan in Centurion. The final is set to be played at Lord’s next June.
The race for the second spot in the final is now between Australia, India, and Sri Lanka. All three teams have four matches left to play in the current WTC cycle.
Australia’s recent 184-run win over India in the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG) has strengthened their chances of qualifying. A victory in their next Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground (SCG) would secure their place in the final, regardless of how their two-match series against Sri Lanka turns out.
If Australia wins at the SCG, their win percentage will rise to 57, a number neither India nor Sri Lanka can surpass. However, if the SCG Test ends in a draw, Australia will need at least one draw in their series against Sri Lanka to qualify. This is because Sri Lanka could win both matches against Australia and reach a win percentage of 53.85, potentially overtaking them.
India’s chances depend on several factors. If they win the SCG Test, they could achieve a win percentage of 55.2. In that case, Australia would need at least one win against Sri Lanka to stay ahead.
Currently, India is in third place with a win percentage of 52.78, having dropped from the top spot after their series against Bangladesh. They are behind both South Africa and Australia, who have win percentages above 60.
India’s loss at the MCG marked the first time in this WTC cycle that their qualification is not entirely in their control. Their best hope now is to win their remaining matches and hope other results go in their favor.
The upcoming matches will be crucial for all teams as they fight for a chance to play in the WTC final.
